2018 станет годом криптовалютного безумия

Каждая успешная новая технология испытывает взрывной рост подобно изобилию жизни в Кебмрийский период, в ходе которого мы стараемся использовать её для всего. Электронная почта, поиск, социальные сети — все они прошли через этап «это решит все наши проблемы!», прежде чем мы выяснили их лучшее применение и недостатки. В эпоху, когда биткоин-пузырь тестирует астрономические цены каждый день, криптовалюты и технология блокчейн тоже теперь переживают эту эпоху.

Блокчейн — это криптографически защищённая распределённая сеть — то, что защищает вас или кого-либо ещё от копирования единицы электронной валюты, которую вы только что купили. Вероятно, вы слышали о популярности технологии блокчейн в финансовом бизнесе. Фактически, с помощью блокчейна можно отрегулировать что угодно. Амбициозные разработчики и предприниматели стремятся использовать технологию для доработки всего, от права собственности на землю до медицины и образования.

Некоторые из этих идей являются блестящими, а другие — смешными. Нужнг ли нам блокчейн для запуска онлайн-энциклопедии или оплаты новостей? Нравится ли нам это или нет, в 2018 году мы, вероятно увидим массу нелепых попыток. Отчасти это связано с избытком венчурного капитала и жадностью инвесторов, которые в восторге от курса биткоина. Но это также происходит потому, что техноиндустрия таким образом определяет на что способна каждая новая платформа. И это неизбежный процесс, который будет идти вне зависимости от того лопнет ли биткоин-пузырь или продолжит надуваться.

В предстоящем году девиз разработчиков финансовых технологий будет звучать следующим образом: «криптокоины для всего!». Первичные размещения монет/токенов (ICO), с помощью которых в мире появляются новые валюты, привлекли на данный момент 4 миллиарда долларов, главным образом в прошлом году, и это превратило данный бизнес в безумие. Будущее, в котором каждый из нас имеет свою личную валюту, всё же маловероятно. Но время, в котором каждая крупная техническая платформа имеет свой собственный токен, вероятно, не за горами.

Прежде чем это может произойти, вот три проблемы, которые необходимо решить отрасли: являются ли ICO инвестициями или инструментами? Можем ли мы отказаться от идеи, что криптовалюты являются новым видом традиционных денег? И могут ли разработчики положить конец чуме технических проблем, связанных с Биткоином и всеми другими криптокоинами? Продолжающийся рост криптоконверсий в 2018 году будет зависеть от того, насколько криптомир будет способен дать ответ на эти вопросы.

Что такое токен?

Первоначальные размещения монет (ICO) изначально являлись альтернативным средством финансирования новых протоколов и инфраструктуры во вселенной криптографии. Благодаря этому процессу компании создают и продают токены; маркеры могут накапливаться как инвестиции или использоваться для выполнения задач на платформе.

Некоторые проекты, надеясь успокоить скептиков и претендовать на больший институциональный капитал, моделируют свои криптопроекты на традиционных инвестиционных средствах. Например, инкубатор Science собрал 12 млн. долл. США в ICO, чтобы использовать ICO-манию и начать инвестиции всего венчурного фонда в компании, связанные с блокчейн. Наука структурировала свой ICO для соблюдения правил Комиссии по ценным бумагам и биржам, а покупка ICO Science не отличалась от покупки в любом другом инвестиционном раунде.

Другие придерживаются более сложного представления о роли токенов. Конечно, они могут колебаться в стоимости и служить инвестициями, но мы их создаём, потому что им приходится выполнять работу по созданию новой технологии. Инженеры, строящие новые протоколы и платформы, не просто переводят наличные деньги в ICO; продаваемые ими токены также создают стимулы и выполняют основные функции в системах, которые они строят, поэтому токены не просто лежат на инвестиционных счетах. Это подход, который лежит в основе недавнего ICO стоимостью 50 миллионов долларов компании Blockstack, стартапа, который предусматривает децентрализованную, основанную на блокчейне сеть. С помощью него вы можете напрямую взаимодействовать с предприятиями, организациями и другими лицами обеспечивая их токенами. Система Blockstack использует собственный браузер и планирует прототипы приложений от независимых разработчиков: хранение данных, аренда дома в стиле Airbnb, публикация музыки и личных записей о здоровье.

Сейчас мир ICO счастливо охватывает обе эти модели. Через год у нас должно быть больше доказательств того, какая из них имеет больше смысла. Модель инвестиций предлагает больше уверенности в том, что любой конкретный ICO не будет откровенным жульничеством; подход «пустить токены в работеу» открывает более революционные технические возможности.

Будущее без наличных денег

Биткоин изначально обьяснялся публике как форма цифровых денег, и именно так были созданы его преемники и конкуренты, такие как Litecoin, Filecoin и Ether. Каждая из этих «валют» по-разному напоминает традиционные деньги — это абстракции экономической ценности; они могут быть проданы; каждый из них использует уникальные символы. Но ни один из них не подходит для того, чтобы играть самую основную роль валюты, как относительно стабильной среды обмена. Как простой способ покупать и продавать вещи. Слишком много проблем. Каждая транзакция занимает слишком много времени, использует слишком много энергии и предполагает слишком много рисков (биткоин, например, потрясающе легко потерять — один неверный пароль, и у вас проблемы).

Почти год назад, когда биткоин торговался всего за 1000 долларов — и люди были в шоке от такой цены! — Кейд Мец спорил в Wired, что «биткоин никогда не будет валютой». Но эта идея так легко не отмирает. Вот, например, последняя печальная история о владельце биткоинов, который пытался продать часть своего состояния и оказался в лабиринте неприятностей. Как он жаловался в твиттере: «Он по-прежнему либо суперсложный, либо ужасно небезопасный. Но теперь у вас также есть смешные комиссии, длительное время обработки, сверхпрактичные обмены с нулевой конфиденциальностью» (его ник в Twitter говорит о том, что он инженер Google, поэтому он, вероятно, не является простаком или технофобом).

В 2018 году самым умным шагом со стороны компаний, производящих ICO и продуктов, связанных с биткоинами, станет отучение общественности и средств массовой информации от концепции «цифровых денег». Это метафора, которая больше не имеет смысла, и она мешает нам правильно понимать новую технологию, которая выглядит как деньги, но на самом деле не является ими.

Продолжая работать над ошибками

Самые большие проблемы с биткоином появились потому, что механики покупки и хранения биткоинов настолько непостижимы, что почти все платят третьим сторонам за их обработку. Эти посредники становятся точками проблем для всей системы. Взлом — и системы рушатся; правительствам и регулирующим органам сообщается о транзакциях, которые, по мнению пользователей, были анонимными.

В 2018 году вы можете рассчитывать на усиление конкуренции среди поставщиков этих услуг, которые будут стремиться заработать доверие пользователей. Это будет непросто, так как инфляция цены биткоина привела к росту значимости этих компаний. Но если мир биткоинов не решит эту проблему, проблемы и дальше будут преследовать всю отрасль.

Каждая из этих трёх проблем, с которыми сталкиваются криптовалюты, сводится к вопросу доверия. По иронии судьбы, либертарианские мечтатели, которые придумали биткоин и его собратьев, представляли мир «беззаботности», в котором вам не приходилось бы оценивать репутацию контрагента в любой транзакции или в любом посредническом учреждении, поскольку весь процесс был гарантирован неопровержимой, криптозащищенной записью операции. Но ничто из того, что происходит в мире ICO и биткоина сегодня, не приблизило нас к такому состоянию. Люди по-прежнему делают рискованные ставки, основанные на вере: является ли моя компания самой надёжной? Какой токен, скорее всего, сохранится и будет расти в цене? Какие разработчики движутся в самом правильном направлении?

Эти ставки будут продолжаться до тех пор, пока рынок будет расти. Криптовалютный бум был построен на изобилии — как в капитале (потому что процентные ставки были настолько низкими так долго), так и в технических ресурсах (потому что до того, как началось криптовалютное безумие, существовало множество простаивающих мощностей). Как утверждает изобретатель BitTorrent Брэм Коэн, «биткоин очень хорошо тратит впустую все доступные ресурсы, до которых может дотянуться». Технические ресурсы начали сокращаться, поэтому игрокам приходится платить больше за свои графические карты — биткоин майнеры скупили все оборудование. Малейшее дуновение финансового кризиса также ударит по имеющимся финансовым ресурсам. Реальный тест для криптовалют в следующем году и далее будет заключаться в том, смогут ли они развиваться, чтобы стать более эффективными. Помните: Кебмрийский период закончился массовым вымиранием видов.

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