Кирилл Шевченко: “Почему из полномочий НБУ исчезли стабильность национальной валюты и развитие экономики?”

Экономика без кредитов не заработает.

Правительство обещает в ближайшие годы существенно трансформировать банковский сектор — вдвое сократить долю государства на рынке, благодаря продаже акций госбанков инвесторам. Укргазбанк будет первым выставленным на продажу госбанком — его миноритарным акционером уже в этом году должна стать Международная финансовая корпорация (IFC).

ZN.UA поговорило с председателем правления этого финучреждения Кириллом Шевченко о перспективах стратегического реформирования сектора, о вызовах, с которыми столкнулись банки в последние годы, и о перспективах возрождения кредитования и экономики.

— Кирилл Евгеньевич, на прошлой неделе правительство, наконец, представило долгожданную стратегию реформирования госбанков. Дайте свою оценку этому документу. Он вас не разочаровал?

— Та часть стратегии, которая касается Укргазбанка, не изменилась, если сравнивать новый документ с предыдущей версией (февраля 2016 г. — Ю.С.). Мы еще в апреле 2016-го утвердили нашу стратегию на собрании акционеров, уже в мае 2016-го подписали первый договор с IFC и с того момента активно развиваем идею “зеленого” банка. Не только потому, что она популярна и нам нравится, но и потому, что уже есть результаты, подтверждающие, что мы с направлением развития не ошиблись. В 2015-м по активам мы были на 17-м месте с долей рынка менее 2%, сейчас уже на 4-м месте, а наша доля рынка превысила 6%. При этом мы единственный госбанк, который с 2015-го не требовал докапитализации и за последние три года ни копейки из госбюджета не взял.

— А если говорить о банковском секторе в целом, что изменит реализация правительственной стратегии?

— Понимаете, в сложившейся ситуации сложно придумать что-то новое. Мы не уникальны. Во время кризисов многие страны проходят этап увеличения доли государства в банковском секторе — Великобритания, Нидерланды, например. Страны, спасая свои финансовые системы, сознательно шли на увеличение доли государства в секторе, а потом постепенно ее снижали. Мы должны признать, что в момент кризиса присутствие государства в банковской системе ее спасло. Государственные банки были островком стабильности, и, на мой взгляд, именно благодаря им система удержалась. Конечно, уже сейчас долю государства в секторе необходимо снижать. И в принципе те рецепты, которые предлагает стратегия, ничем не отличаются от пути, который проходили другие страны. Другого пути нет.

— А нет ощущения потерянного времени? Стратегию так долго обновляли из-за национализации Приватбанка. Но на Укргазбанк, например, эта национализация не повлияла, да и ваш курс не изменился, а время ушло.

— В этом случае мы, понимая тенденцию, очень продуктивно действовали на опережение. И не прогадали! Кроме того, для нас больший вес имели изменения, учтенные в новом законе о приватизации. До его принятия единственной допустимой процедурой приватизации для нас была передача банка в Фонд госимущества. Продавать банки через ФГИУ нельзя. Это, по сути, потеря контроля над финучреждением, топ-менеджмент банка никогда бы на это не пошел. Это вопрос доверия, зачем в непростое время заставлять клиентов нервничать? И мы ждали не столько стратегии, сколько возможности Кабинета министров продавать доли госбанков менее “раздражающим” путем. И это, кстати, было одно из условий международных финансовых организаций.

— Давайте посмотрим на этот процесс глазами государства как собственника. Любой собственник хочет от бизнеса, чтобы он приносил прибыль, а не залезал к нему в карман. Другого пути, кроме как эту собственность продать, у государства нет. Иначе докапитализация будет постоянной. Государство, что бы ни говорили о его неэффективности, ответственный собственник, оно никогда свои банки не бросит. Поэтому продажа госбанков — единственный выход. Конечно, всегда будет открытым вопрос цены этой продажи. Но если мы сравним варианты: продать сегодня дешевле, но снизить постоянные расходы в будущем, то альтернативы продаже не увидим.

При наличии политической воли к 2022 г. государство все еще останется крупным игроком на банковском рынке, но у этого крупного игрока не будет нынешнего монопольного положения.

— Кроме самой продажи, в стратегии речь идет и о сокращении сотрудничества государства и госбанков: ограничение объема ОВГЗ в портфелях, отказ от “зарплатных” проектов, снижение кредитования госпредприятий. Кому придется тяжелее, когда “кассу взаимопомощи” закроют, — госбанкам или государству?

— Тут масса нюансов, ведь есть, например, госпредприятия, за которыми и частные банки охотятся. Предприятие типа НАК “Нафтогаз Украины” — это хороший заемщик, в отличие от ГП “Уголь Украины”, например. Поэтому обобщенного подхода в этих вопросах быть не может. Если в сотрудничестве госбанков с госкомпаниями есть бизнес, оно имеет смысл. Кстати, МФО это понимают и не отрицают. Вы можете представить, что частный банк откажется кредитовать проекты государственного сектора, если они экономически выгодны? И мы с удовольствием кредитуем государственные проекты, но не все подряд.

— Многие видят в этом создание неконкурентных условий работы в секторе.

— Никто на сегодняшний день не запрещает частным банкам участвовать в тендерах по кредитованию государственных предприятий. Никаких ограничений нет, нужно просто предложить лучшие ставки и взять на себя риски.

Давайте посмотрим на “зарплатные” проекты госбанков с позиции государства как собственника. Представьте себе предприятие, входящее в одну промышленную группу с банком. И по какой-то причине сотрудники этого предприятия получают зарплаты через какой-то другой банк. У меня более 20 лет стажа в банковском бизнесе, и я такого не видел. Государство как собственник госпредприятий и госбанков совершенно логично настаивало на том, чтобы давать бизнес собственным банкам. Чтобы его банки были более эффективны, платили налоги и дивиденды своему собственнику, то есть государству. Это нормальная конкурентная борьба.

— Конкурентная ли она, если у государства монополия в секторе?

— Если бы акционером моего банка была частная компания, и ее сотрудники обслуживались в каком-то другом банке, у меня была бы такая же позиция. Государство не должно принимать решения, противоречащие его же интересам. В Фонде гарантирования вкладов “зависло”
117 млрд грн средств госкомпаний. Это хорошая причина не наступать на эти же грабли в будущем.

— Сколько в вашем портфеле государственных облигаций?

— Порядка 20 млрд грн, около 35%. Но у большинства госбанков такие большие портфели государственных бумаг не потому, что их “заставляют” или “вынуждают” их выкупать, а потому что начиная с 2008 г. докапитализация госбанков проходит не деньгами, а ценными бумагами. Кроме того, когда сегодня на кредитование спрос ограничен, это неплохой способ вложения ликвидности, он нам нравится больше, чем депозитные сертификаты НБУ. Поверьте, это отличный способ вложения наших пассивов, при нынешних ставках мы имеем довольно неплохую маржу.

— Но ваша маржа стране дорого обходится.

— Например, избавиться от госбанков. Поделитесь опытом с коллегами, как так получилось, что у Укргазбанка и набсовет работающий есть, и внятная стратегия развития? И почему для других госбанков это проблема?

— Мы заложили основы еще до того, как появился первый вариант стратегии, начав реформу системы корпоративного управления в 2015 г. Все, о чем сейчас говорится в стратегии, мы давно реализовали. Принятие решений коллегиальное, работают комитеты, наблюдательный совет, возглавляемый независимым директором, система противодействия конфликту интересов создана. На самом деле это революционно не только для госбанков. Я не раз сталкивался с недоумением коллег из частных банков: как это возможно, что главой набсовета стал независимый директор? Они, например, не понимают, как их собственникам в Вене или Париже объяснить необходимость таких изменений. Ведь любой собственник хочет непосредственно управлять своим бизнесом. Но тут надо отдать должное IFC, они нам помогли реализовать реформу корпоративного управления, советовали, как все правильно сделать. С одной стороны, ничего сложного в этом нет, с другой стороны, банк — это крупная организация, переделать ее за один день невозможно. Самые большие изменения должны произойти в сознании сотрудников. Особенно когда мы начинали заниматься “зеленым” банкингом и развивать “зеленое” кредитование.

— Насколько перспективно это направление? Поначалу многие скептически отнеслись к этой идее.

— Мы знаем. Но перспективы огромные. В 2015-м, когда на смену Киотскому протоколу было принято Парижское климатическое соглашение, параллельно была создана сеть Green Bank Network, объединившая “зеленые” банки. Они все, кстати, государственные, за исключением нескольких муниципальных банков США. Предполагается, что посредством этой сети банков будут финансироваться программы, направленные на достижение целей Парижского соглашения. Речь идет об удержании роста мировой температуры в пределах 2°C. Для этого нужно до 2040 г. инвестировать в различные “зеленые” проекты свыше 50 трлн долл. США. Без существования специализированных финансовых учреждений достичь этих показателей невозможно. Во всем мире “зеленые” банки делают три вещи: финансируют проекты возобновляемой энергетики, энергосберегающих технологий и проекты, связанные с защитой окружающей среды. Так вот, на сегодняшний день в мире отставание в финансировании этих проектов составляет около 20,7 трлн долл. Украине, по оценке IFC, чтобы достичь поставленных целей до 2030 г., надо инвестировать в “зеленые” проекты порядка 70 млрд долл. Мы претендуем на треть этого рынка. Нам есть чем заняться.

В прошлом году мы профинансировали 72 масштабных проекта “зеленой” энергетики, сегодня их уже 80. Это солнечные, ветровые, биогазовые и малые гидроэлектростанции. Вместе с Министерством экологии работаем с первой сотней крупнейших предприятий-загрязнителей Украины. В прошлом году профинансировали установку фильтров на домны “Запорожстали”, например, и выбросы СО2 в городе снизились на 20%. По энергопотреблению Украина в мировых “лидерах” после африканских стран, до определенного момента вопросы энергопотребления, как, впрочем, и экологии в этой стране мало кого заботили. Сейчас то, чем мы занимаемся, в первую очередь выгодно самому государству.

— Тем не менее именно “зеленый” банк государство первым планирует продать.

— Мы пока говорим о частичной продаже. На самом деле не важно, какая доля будет продана IFC, важно, что это будет принципиально новый уровень сотрудничества Украины с международными финансовыми институтами. Собственниками банка будут Украина и Всемирный банк — уникальная модель для украинского банковского сектора. Что может быть надежнее? Для банка это совсем другой уровень развития. Это другая стоимость фондирования на западных рынках. Другой уровень управления банком. До подписания Меморандума о привлечении инвестиций IFC глава Всемирного банка не приезжал в Украину 15 лет. Объективно это очень позитивный сигнал.

— У нас кредитный портфель по состоянию на начало 2015 г. был 16 млрд грн, сегодня он 40 млрд. Да, большая часть этого прироста обеспечена “зелеными” проектами, но в других направлениях перспективы тоже есть.

На рынке кредитования две проблемы — незащищенность кредитора и процентные ставки. Чудес не бывает, процентная ставка по депозиту всегда должна быть премиальной к инфляции, и если мы посмотрим на уровень инфляции, то поймем реальную цену денег. Потому что решения НБУ по учетной ставке совершенно логичны, если мы говорим только о сдерживании инфляции. И логичны, если говорим только о таргетировании инфляции. Но почему из полномочий НБУ исчезли стабильность национальной валюты и развитие экономики? Почему полномочия регулятора сузились только до таргетирования инфляции? На мой взгляд, полномочия НБУ стоит пересматривать. Нужны системные изменения. Ведь решения НБУ влияют на все процессы в стране, и он должен быть активным участником не только финансовой, но и экономической жизни страны.

Ответственность заемщиков — не менее важный момент. Ведь многие из них пострадали в силу вполне объективных причин, в ФГВФЛ остались оборотные средства многих компаний, которые просто обслуживались в выведенных из рынка банках. Механизма возврата этих средств государство им так и не предложило, и единственный на сегодняшний день способ поддержать эти компании — это кредитование, других вариантов нет. Иначе экономика расти не будет.

— Обратная сторона кредитных проблем — это огромные объемы NPLs на балансах банков. И для госбанков это большая головная боль. Не стоит ли осторожнее подходить к развитию кредитования в будущем?

— Главный урок, который мы должны извлечь для себя после минувшего банковского кризиса, — если человек однажды пошел на сознательный дефолт, он уже в группе риска. Для тех, кто пошел на дефолт по объективным причинам, хорошим рабочим инструментом является закон о финансовой реструктуризации. А для тех, кто пошел на дефолт по субъективным причинам, дорога на рынок заимствований закрыта.

На сегодняшний день есть сегмент заемщиков, которые достойно прошли банковский кризис, и мы эту часть заемщиков успешно перекредитуем. Кроме того, с учетом дефицита заемщиков банки начинают придумывать новые виды кредитования. Для нас это, например, энергосберегающие кредиты. На удивление долго пришлось объяснять не только клиентам, но и коллегам по банку, что кредит на энергоэффективность отличается от стандартного кредита только тем, что такой кредит позволяет заработать, не увеличивая прибыль, а сокращая затраты. Это потребовало усилий, в банке работают технические специалисты по оценке таких проектов, а IFC делает для заемщика бесплатную экспертизу кредита, варианты технологических решений, его окупаемости, объемов экономии. У нас уже реализован уникальный проект, мы кредитовали замену освещения в теплицах, мало того, что новые лампы экономили электроэнергию, они еще и обладали спектром, улучшающим качество продукции. Это выгодно. И такие кредиты окупаются быстро. В производственных помещениях замена освещения окупает себя за полтора года.

Конечно, на рынке есть и настораживающие тенденции, например рост рынка потребительского кредитования, так называемых кэш-кредитов. Это большой риск, потому что платить до 50–100% годовых можно только в одном случае — если ты постоянно берешь новые кредиты. Другого источника погашений сегодня нет. Акценты в этот сегмент кредитования сместились вынужденно. Автомобильное кредитование далеко не процветает из-за отсутствия спроса на новые авто. Ситуация с ипотекой едва ли лучше. И все пошли туда, где есть высокая доходность. Но там и риск высокий. Во многих странах такое кредитование запрещено на законодательном уровне. Они уже на этом обожглись. Мы опять учимся на своих ошибках.

Но я все-таки с оптимизмом смотрю на развитие кредитования, просто другого пути у нас нет, экономика без кредитов не заработает.

— Укргазбанк успешно, если сравнивать с другими госбанками, избавляется от “токсичных” активов — с 2015-го вы их объем в портфеле сократили с 38 до 18%. Тем не менее проблема избавления от NPLs для вас тоже актуальна, а стратегия не предложила госбанкам внятного механизма работы с проблемными задолженностями. Каким вы видите этот механизм?

— Основная проблема, которую необходимо решить, это реальная оценка стоимости залогов. Мы все понимаем, что по балансовой стоимости их уже не продать. Списать их тоже нельзя. И любой руководитель госбанка должен аргументировано объяснить, почему этот актив продается с дисконтом, иначе его обвинят в растрате, нанесении ущерба и прочем. В стране есть структура, которая умеет оценивать такие активы, — это Фонд гарантирования вкладов физлиц. Это та площадка, которая может сформировать индикаторы рыночной стоимости наших долгов. А мы должны получить возможность эти долги по рыночной стоимости продавать. Для этого нужны решения на законодательном уровне, которые бы запустили этот механизм. Поверьте, любой руководитель госбанков с радостью избавится от этих долгов.

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