Мизрах Игорь: Неоднозначные позы военного положения

Начало

Договор гласил: «Российская Федерация и Украина, далее именуемые Сторонами, руководствуясь отношениями дружбы и сотрудничества между народами России и Украины, исторически сложившимися братскими узами между ними; руководствуясь положениями Договора о дружбе, сотрудничестве и партнерстве между Российской Федерацией и Украиной от 31 мая 1997 года, а также Договора между Российской Федерацией и Украиной о российско-украинской государственной границе от 28 января 2003 года; отмечая важное значение Азовского моря и Керченского пролива для экономического развития России и Украины; будучи убеждены в том, что все вопросы, касающиеся Азовского моря и Керченского пролива, должны решаться только мирными средствами совместно или по согласию России и Украины; исходя из необходимости сохранения Азово-Керченской акватории как целостного хозяйственного и природного комплекса, используемого в интересах России и Украины». Однако последние события сыграли не самую лучшую роль для, казалось бы, мирного и весьма обоюдного плана.

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Недавно Президентом Украины Петром Порошенко был подписал указ о прекращении Договора о дружбе, сотрудничестве и партнерстве между Российской Федерацией и Украиной. В ближайшее время Украинские власти собираются официально сообщить об этом российской стороне.

Если отказ украинской стороны о действии договора на последующие 10 лет будет принят и объявлен официально, документ прекратит свое действие с 1 апреля 2019 года.

В МИД РФ также заявляют о глубоком сожалении и о том, что наносится «колоссальный урон не только российско-украинским отношениям, но и национальным интересам самой Украины». Необходимо отметить, в договоре о дружбе, сотрудничестве и партнерстве Россия гарантировала территориальную целостность Украины, но всё же оккупировала украинский Крым и часть Донбасса.

17 сентября, президентом Петром Порошенко был подписан указ «О решении Совета национальной безопасности и обороны Украины от 6 сентября 2018 «О Договоре о дружбе, сотрудничестве и партнерстве между Украиной и Российской Федерацией».

Согласно решению СНБО, МИД должен проинформировать МИД РФ, а также Организацию Объединенных Наций, Организацию по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе, другие международные организации о желании Украины прекратить действие Договора и об основании прекращения. Если верить словам представителя президента в Верховной Раде Ирины Луценко, то до 30 сентября Россия будет проинформирована нотой МИД о желании Украины прекратить действие договора, а глава государства внесет в парламент соответствующий законопроект согласно ст. 24 закона «О международных договорах Украины».

Логичным стало и то, что после оккупации Крыма и начала конфликта на Донбассе в Украине, в стране неоднократно звучали призывы расторгнуть договор из-за нарушения Россией территориальной целостности Украины.

ВП

Недавно президент Украины Петр Порошенко написал в своём  Twitter о том, что военное положение таки объявлено, а так же о том, что в тех областях Украины, где было объявлено военное положение, состоятся учебные сборы с резервистами и территориальной обороной.

Также, согласно стратегического плана применения ВСУ, состоятся военные учения и передислокация войск, а предприятия оборонпрома перейдут на особый режим работы, отметил президент и главнокомандующий.

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Порошенко заверил, что охрана уже работает в усиленном режиме, введена оборона объектов критической инфраструктуры: атомных и гидроэлектростанций; объектов химической промышленности; украинских портов на Черном и Азовском морях. Говориться так же о том, что будут приняты все необходимые меры для усиления противовоздушной обороны.

В рамках военного положения Украина уже закрыла въезд на свою территорию мужчинам из страны-оккупанта России — кроме “гуманитарных” случаев. Об этом на совещании у президента Петра Порошенко, которое транслировалось в Facebook главы государства, рассказал глава Госпогранслужбы Петр Цигикал.

“В пунктах пропуска осуществляются усиленные меры контроля. Прежде всего, в отношении граждан Российской Федерации. Не пропускаются граждане РФ в возрасте от 16 до 60 лет мужского пола”, – заявил он.

Каким образом происходит ограничение въезда россиян из этой возрастной группы, не уточняется.

Порошенко подчеркнул, что такие ограничительные меры, как предполагается, помешают Кремлю создать на территории Украины организованные группы “частных армий, как в 2014 году”.

“Применяются ограничения, кроме гуманитарных случаев (похороны родственников и т.д., – ред.). Все будет четко выписано в инструкции”, – добавил верховный главнокомандующий.

Интересным фактом является так же то, что при военном положении в стране должны разворачиваться военные госпитали, открываться дополнительные пункты переливания крови, функционировать бомбоубежища. Функционирует ли всё вышеперечисленное в Украине пока что остаётся тайной. Отметить стоит лишь то, что в Украине это первое военное положение с 1941 года.

РЕЙТИНГ

В РФ считают, что Киев использует военное положение, чтобы поднять электоральный рейтинг Петра Порошенко на предстоящих выборах нового главы государства. Об этом  заявила пресс-секретарь Министерства иностранных дел России Мария Захарова, говорится в микроблоге российского дипведомства в Twitter российского ведомства.

И действительно, объявив себя  непримиримым борцом с российской агрессией, кандидат Порошенко сумел добиться некоторого повышения своего рейтинга. По данным презентованных в начале месяца результатов последнего масштабного исследования четырёх социологических центров, у кандидата в президенты Тимошенко 13,4%, у следующего за ней шоу-мена Зеленского – 7,6%. А дальше на равных: у Порошенко и Анатолия Гриценко по 7%, у Юрия Бойко (на момент опроса ещё как претендента от «Оппозиционного блока») – 6,9%.

Данные этого соцопроса показали, что по сравнению с данными популярности Порошенко на момент старта его кампании рейтинг этого кандидата вырос с 5,8% до 7%.

Однако после незначительного повышения этот рост практически замер. Для того, чтобы инерция набора электоральных баллов кандидатом продолжалось, его штабу нужно было вновь переключить внимание общества с других актуальных тем (повышение тарифов на газ, протесты «евробляхеров», проблемы с отоплением в разных регионах и т.д.) на тему «Государственник Порошенко – гарант сохранения независимости Украины в борьбе с российской агрессией». Что и было сделано.

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Введение военного положения в сложившихся условиях стало единственным решительным действием собственно Украины, которое показывает и степень серьёзности угрозы и степень готовности украинской власти реагировать на неё.

Безусловно положительным фактором является то, что одобренный парламентом вариант военного положения по сравнению в первыми президентскими эскизами соответствующих указов получился сбалансированным и одновременно эффективным. С акцентом на составляющие по повышению обороноспособности и обеспечению безопасности страны. И с одновременным «вынесением за скобки» беспокоящих не только политиков, но и большинство украинцев вопросов обеспечения демократических процедур. В том числе проведения выборов президента Украины в определённые законодательством сроки – 31 марта будущего года.

Томос

Известно, что президент Петр Порошенко выступает за создание собственной единой автокефальной поместной церкви. Верховная Рада поддержала его обращение к Вселенскому патриарху Варфоломею о предоставлении Томоса об автокефалии православной церкви в Украине.

Активный процесс касательно Томоса начался в апреле этого года. Верховная Рада приняла проект постановления о поддержке обращения президента Украины к Вселенскому патриарху Варфоломею о предоставлении Томоса об автокефалии православной церкви в Украине.

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“После того, как вы проголосуете, я смогу сообщить сегодня же Его Святейшеству Варфоломею, что мы все в основном выполнили свою часть того, о чем мы говорили и о чем мы договорились 9 апреля. И пусть мощный голос миллионов православных украинцев, епископов и мирян, позицией власти, позицией парламента, позицией президента услышат Вселенский патриарх и Синод”, – заявил Петр Порошенко.

За несколько дней до голосования президент Петр Порошенко сделал громкое заявление – за 26 лет независимости Украина как никогда близка к созданию собственной единой автокефальной поместной церкви.

По словам главы государства, об этом свидетельствует не только позиция Вселенского патриарха Варфоломея І, который, как известно, не первый год поддерживает объединение украинских церквей – сегодня есть абсолютно все необходимые ключевые элементы.

Сам президент также намерен обратиться к Вселенскому патриарху Варфоломею І с призывом издать Томос об автокефалии православной церкви в Украине и Верховная Рада его в этом начинании поддержала.

Теперь в областях, где военное положение уже в силе, не будут обостриться конфликты на почве веры. Именно это и даст очередные рейтинги и плюсы для Порошенко, так как 9 млн верующих будут на его стороне.

МнениеЭксперта

По мнению нашего эксперта, социолога, экономиста Игоря Мизраха Украина могла и до сих пор может выйти из конфликта мирным путём. «Украина является участником многих международных договоров и меморандумов, заручившись поддержкой членов  которых, возможно было бы иное разрешение сложившийся острой ситуации» – прокомментировал ситуацию Игорь Мизрах.

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