Платить, чтоб не сбежали. Почему на фоне роста трудовой миграции в Украине безработица не снижается

Власти заявляют: Украина практически победила безработицу. Об успехах на трудовом фронте недавно отчитался президент Петр Порошенко. “Уже нет проблемы безработицы, есть проблема с точностью до наоборот”, – сказал он, выступая на правительственном совещании по вопросам децентрализации и регионального развития в Виннице. 

Правда, при этом глава государства признал, что это все же “средняя температура по палате – где-то людям негде работать, а где-то “на квалифицированную рабочую силу охотятся рекрутеры, в том числе и иностранные”, уточнил он.

Впрочем, эксперты, с которыми пообщалась “Страна”, констатируют: проблем с работой у украинцев даже стало больше.

“По данным Международной организации труда (МОТ), уровень безработицы в Украине достигает 10% (1,8 млн. чел). Это рекордный показатель за последние годы, особенно с учетом того, что Украина активно “экспортирует” свою безработицу в Евросоюз: туда на работу уже выехало 4-5 млн. наших граждан, причем, армия гастарбайтеров растет на 30% в год. Страшно даже представить как увеличатся цифры безработицы, если хотя бы часть трудовых мигрантов вернется на родину”, – говорит экономист Виктор Скаршевский.

“Страна” разбиралась, что происходит на отечественном рынке труда и почему власти предпочитают не замечать безработицу, вместо того, чтобы с ней бороться.

Безработица на экспорт 

Заместитель руководителя Госслужбы занятости Сергей Кравченко утверждает, что статистика МОТ завышена.

“В Украине нет 1,8 млн. безработных. К примеру, на биржах труда на 4 апреля было зарегистрировано порядка 357 тыс. чел, что на 20 тыс. меньше, чем по состоянию на начало года”, – рассказал он “Стране”. Для сравнения: в прошлые годы этот показатель составлял 450-550 тыс. человек. То есть, по мнению Кравченко, – налицо уменьшение армии безработных.

Но практически те же цифры, что и МОТ, дает и украинская Госслужба статистики. Как следует из ее отчета, по итогам января-февраля 2018 года в Украине было без работы 1,7 млн человек из 17,9 млн граждан в возрасте 15-70 лет, то есть, те 10% трудоспособного населения.

Впрочем, Госстат оценивает официальную безработицу по другой методике, чем МОТ: ориентируется не на трудоспособное, а на все населения страны. Так что получается куда более оптимистический показатель. Скажем, на конец февраля этого года уровень зарегистрированной безработицы составил всего 1,5%. Госстат не учитывает также реальных безработных, которые попросту не идут на биржу, предпочитая самостоятельно искать временные подработки или постоянное место (а таких очень много).

Нынешний уровень безработицы, если следовать методике МОТ – рекордный за последние 15 лет. Выше он был только в 2002 году – 10,3%, после чего пошел на спад. К примеру, в 2005 году этот показатель составил 7,8%, в 2007 – 6,9%, в 2013 – 7,7% и т.д. В прошлом году безработных в Украине было 9,5%, то есть, налицо тенденция роста армии незанятого населения.

Причины лежат на поверхности – невысокие темпы развития отечественной экономики и, соответственно, минимальный прирост новых рабочих мест.

Как говорит Скаршевский, безработица в Украине могла бы быть намного больше, если бы не трудовая миграция. Только за прошлый год она выросла на треть и украинцы продолжают собирать чемоданы, отмечает эксперты.

По сути, рост трудовой миграции – едва ли не единственная возможность для Украины снизить показатель безработицы, ведь рассчитывать на экономический всплеск и появление новых рабочих мест в этом году особо не приходится, – констатировали эксперты.

Впрочем, президент Петр Порошенко считает, что растущая армия гастрабайторов – это нормально. “Украина становится частью европейского рынка труда. Это является объективным фактором – с этим сталкивались все новые члены ЕС и соседних стран. Но этот фактор побуждает владельцев бизнеса и топ-менеджмент увеличивать зарплаты в стране. Хочу сказать, что тенденция очень позитивная”, – заявил он.

Почему так мало платят 

Все безработные граждане при желании смогли бы найти работу на родине, считает Кравченко.

“Безработные у нас, конечно же, есть. Но это не потому, что они не могут найти работу. Многие не хотят работать за предлагаемые им зарплаты и в то же время не хотят увеличивать свою рыночную стоимость, к примеру, повышать квалификацию или менять ее”, – говорит Кравченко.

По словам аналитика rabota.ua Татьяны Пашкиной, на рынке сейчас действительно наблюдается жесткий дисбаланс спроса и предложения.

Учебные заведения продолжают штамповать юристов и экономистов, которых рекрутеры уже давно называют “дипломированными безработными”, в то же время растет дефицит квалифицированных рабочих. Ситуация с каждым годом усугубляется, хотя и министерство образования и правительство рапортуют о пересмотре госзаказа на подготовку кадров в сторону более востребованных профессий.

“Один из наших клиентов из Харькова столкнулся с нехваткой сварщиков. Его кадровики объездили ПТУ, в которых декларируется подготовка таких кадров, чтобы привлечь молодых специалистов. Оказалось, что во многих учебных заведениях группы сварщиков не набрали из-за недостатка желающих и в итоге учат вместо них парикмахеров и мастеров маникюра”, – рассказывает Пашкина.

Но, по словам Пашкиной, проблема не только в разрыве спроса и предложения.

“На нашем рынке труда – классическая революционная ситуация: верхи не хотят платить больше, а низы – работать за копеечные зарплаты”, – отмечает Пашкина. По данным rabota.ua, практически во всех профессиональных группах зарплатные ожидания соискателей выше, чем предложения работодателей.

К примеру, бухгалтеры хотят получать 10,1 тыс. грн., а могут устроится лишь на 8,3 тыс. грн., логисты претендуют почти на 10 тыс., тогда как им готовы платить меньше 8 тыс., у поваров разрыв между желаемой и реальной зарплатой превышает 3 тыс. грн. (11,8 тыс. против 8,6 тыс. грн.). Показательно, что своей зарплатой недовольны и те самые дефицитные рабочие, хотя на предприятиях утверждают, что буквально осыпают их деньгами.

Как рассказали в rabota.ua, в строительстве средняя ожидаемая зарплата составляет 13,5 тысяч гривен, а предлагают работодатели 12,2 тысяч гривен. По рабочим специальностям в промышленности цифры составляют 11 тысяч гривен и 10,4 тысяч гривен соответственно.

В то же время Сергей Кравченко утверждает, что реальный доход рабочих намного выше. По его данным, водители и квалифицированные строители могут легко заработать до 25 тыс. грн. в месяц, а сантехник в Киеве – до $2 тыс.

В таком случае, правда, непонятно, зачем те же строители и сантехники едут на заработки в Польшу, где им предлагают по 600-800 евро, то есть, 19,3 – 25,7 тыс. грн.

Как пояснили “Стране” в компании Novbud, в Украине действительно наблюдается острая нехватка каменщиков и монолитчиков.

“Причина – массовая миграция на заработки в Польшу. Если в Польше человек подписал контракт, то он работает и четко получает обещанную зарплату. В той же Польше монолитчики и каменщики могут получать до тысячи долларов в месяц. В Украине – от 12 до 15 тыс. грн.”, – рассказали в Novbud.

Задержки зарплаты, а то и вовсе ее невыплата, нарушения договоренностей – вот неполный список проблем, с которыми  на практике сталкиваются украинцы. Власти обещают: уже в конце апреля в стране заработает реестр предприятий-должников по выплате зарплаты. Сейчас над его созданием работает Минюст. Эту базу совместят с базой других должников, к примеру, по алиментам.

“Думаю, 15-20 апреля будет готов реестр должников по алиментам, где в автоматическом режиме можно будет искать и должников по заработной плате”, – сказал министр юстиции Павел Петренко.

Но будет ли от этого реальная польза – большой вопрос. Ведь из-за высокой налоговой нагрузки на фонд заработной платы многие украинские компании продолжают выплачивать зарплаты в конвертах. Как утверждает Сергей Кравченко, набирает обороты и другая тенденция: работники не хотят устраиваться на высокие официальные зарплаты: боясь потерять льготы, в частности, по субсидиям.

“Например, устраиваются на неполную занятость, что невыгодно работодателям, ведь им все равно приходится платить налоги, исходя из минимальной зарплаты 3,7 тысяч гривен”, – поясняет Кравченко.

Татьяна Пашкина говорит, что наши работодатели никак не могут смириться с тем, что персоналу нужно платить достойные зарплаты.

“У нас платят не столько, сколько в реальности могут, а лишь чтобы специалист не удрал. Отсюда – сравнительно большой рост зарплат у рабочих, которые в любой момент могут упаковать чемоданы и уехать в Польшу, и почти полное отсутствие роста окладов у сотрудников с высшим образованием, к примеру, бухгалтеров или юристов, которым за границей устроится по специальности практически невозможно”, – констатирует Пашкина.

Всем выгодно 

Теоретически проблему, хотя бы отчасти, могла бы решить комплексная программа переквалификации “ненужных” специалистов в остро востребованные. Но, как пояснил заместитель главы Госслужбы занятости, такие программы оказались малоэффективными.

“У нас рабочие специальности не престижные и менять ситуацию нужно начинать еще со школ, проводя активную профориентацию”, – констатирует чиновник. А украинцы, которые из-за безденежья все же решаются кардинально сменить профессию, как правило, делают это не на родине, а в той же Польше, где работодатели согласны сначала учить специалиста с нуля, в потом платить ему по 600-800 евро и больше.

“Так что, скорее всего, вымывание трудовых ресурсов из Украины продолжится и это реальная угроза экономике страны. Мы рискуем окончательно превратится в аграрно-сырьевую страну без каких-либо внятных перспектив на развитие”, – констатирует Скаршевский.

Порошенко дает простой совет работодателям: “Платите людям больше, платите людям легально. Тогда у них будет меньше мотивация ехать на заработки за границу, разрушать семьи, создавать социальную напряженность и социальные проблемы”.

Впрочем, эксперты советуют оценивать ситуацию реально: соревноваться зарплатами с европейскими компаниями наш бизнес все равно не сможет. Поэтому снизить темпы трудовой миграции в обозримом будущем вряд ли удастся.

Наоборот, она будет только расти. Впрочем, на самом деле власти в этом, скорее всего, даже заинтересованы.

Ведь трудовые мигранты обеспечивают стабильный приток валюты в страну – по итогам прошлого года они перечислили в Украину 9,2 млрд. долларов, что почти вшестеро больше, чем вложили в украинскую экономику иностранные инвесторы.

В то же время они не претендуют на социальную помощь, медицинское обслуживание, а значит – экономят бюджетные деньги.

Страна

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