Поближе к деньгам и западной границе. Почему украинцы массово присматривают жилье в Киеве и Львове

С начала осени в Украине оживился рынок недвижимости. О толпах клиентов, в частности, рапортуют киевские и львовские риэлторы. 

И в Киеве, и во Львове с сентября отмечается ажиотажный спрос на аренду и растет число запросов на покупку квартир. Арендные ставки уже отреагировали на новую тенденцию — найти более -менее приличное жилье дешевле 10 тысяч гривен в столице практически нереально. В Киеве начали дорожать также самые ликвидные квартиры. “Единичка” на окраине, которая еще весной стоила 26 тысяч долларов, сейчас предлагается за 28 тысяч.

Примечательно, что ажиотаж спровоцировали заезжие покупатели и арендаторы, в частности, из восточных и южных областей Украины. К примеру, в Киев потянулись аграрные деньги из Херсонской и Николаевской областей — поднакопив на продаже урожая, жители этих регионов скупают квартиры в Киеве, чтобы затем зарабатывать на аренде.

Во Львове тенденция другая. “Много покупателей с востока — из Днепра, Запорожья. Люди покупают квартиры “на всякий случай”, — рассказала “Стране” руководитель местного агентства “Эстейт Эксклюзив” Елена Мищанчук.

При этом в других крупных городах Украины никакого ажиотажа пока нет.

“Страна” разбиралась, почему украинцы оккупируют Киев и Львов.

Ажиотаж арендаторов и покупателей из регионов

Руководитель агенства Best&Seller Ирина Луханина говорит, что в этом году в Киеве даже не было традиционного летнего затишья — и в июле, и в августе люди ходили на просмотры и оформляли сделки. А по аренде квартиры вообще уходят как горячие пирожки и уже за первый месяц осени успели подорожать на 20%.

Повышенный интерес потенциальных покупателей Луханина поясняет, прежде всего, большим отложенным спросом. Пока цены на квартиры зашкаливали, люди не спешили вкладывать в них свои сбережения. А так как в течение последних лет жилье и так постоянно дешевело на 1-3% в месяц, многие решили, что цены уже достигли дна и тянуть дальше не стоит.

“Продажи в течение последних трех месяцев растут примерно на 15-20% ежемесячно”, — рассказал “Стране” начальник отдела продаж SVITLO PARK Александр Панфилов.

Риэлторы отмечают увеличение числа иногородних покупателей. Они не собираются переезжать в Киев, но активно присматривают здесь недорогие квартиры, которые затем планируют сдавать в аренду. Об этой тенденции эксперты говорили еще полгода назад, а с осени она заметно усилилась.

Тем более, что, по словам Ирины Луханиной, спрос на аренду с начала нового осеннего сезона заметно вырос.

“Ищут, в основном, те, кто приезжает в столицу на работу. Готовы жить по 2-3 человека. Хотят снять 1-2 комнатную квартиру стоимостью до 10 тысяч гривен в месяц или комнату за 3-4 тысяч. На подобные запросы приходится 75% заявок. За 10 тысяч гривен ищут жилье в относительно новом доме и с приличным ремонтом, недалеко от метро. Но предлагают за такие деньги только единички и двушки  с советскими интерьерами в старом фонде. Так что арендаторам приходится или доплачивать, как минимум, 2 тысяч гривен или соглашаться на более скромное проживание, чем они рассчитывали”, — рассказала Луханина.

По ее словам, квартиры на волне повышенного спроса резко подорожали: те, что еще летом сдавались по 7 тысяч гривен, теперь предлагаются по 9-10 тысяч. В среднем же по рынку цены подскочили примерно на 20%.

Наблюдая такой ажиотаж, украинцы, имеющие 25-50 тысяч долларов, рассматривают вариант вложения денег в столичную недвижимость с целью ее сдачи в аренду.

По словам Ирины Луханиной, сдавая квартиру в аренду, владелец может заработать значительно больше, чем, к примеру, разместив сбережения на валютном депозите.

Так, квартиру за 100 тысяч долларов, по словам Луханиной, можно сдавать в зависимости от состояния и месторасположения за 800-1200 долларов в месяц. То есть, в год реально получить 9,6 тысяч-14,4 тысяч, а это порядка 10-14,5% годовых. Для сравнения: ставки по валютным депозитам сейчас составляют в среднем по рынку всего около 2,5% (при сроке размещения на 6-12 месяцев) и 2,8% — по более “длинным” депозитам. Именно по этой причине многие украинцы забирают свои деньги из банков и вкладывают их в недвижимость.

“Присматривая квартиру под аренду, люди ориентируются на объекты, стоимость которых можно отбить максимум за 10 лет, а еще лучше — за 7-8 лет. Но тут нужен основательный просчет. К примеру, можно купить квартиру в центре Киева за 150 тысяч долларов, сдавать ее по 1,3 тысяч долларов в месяц и выйти на 15,6 тысяч долларов дохода в год (или порядка 10% годовых). Вернуть такую инвестицию реально за 9-10 лет. Но можно купить такую же квартиру, перепланировать ее на две «единички» и каждую сдавать по 800 долларов. В этом случае вложения можно вернуть быстрее. Если потратить меньше, и купить двушку на Оболони за 40 тысяч, ее реально сдавать по 11-12 тысяч гривен в месяц, а окупить вложения — на 8-9 лет. Квартира за такие же деньги на Троещине будет приносить куда меньше дохода (до 6-7 тысяч гривен в месяц), следовательно, сроки ее окупаемости растянутся на 12-13 лет”, — пояснила Луханина.

“Пузырь” не лопнул, а аккуратно “сдулся”

Оживление спроса уже спровоцировало рост не только арендных ставок, но и цен на квартиры. “За последний месяц в некоторых сегментах цены выросли на 6-12%”, — говорит Луханина.

Речь идет о самом ходовом жилье. Это дешевые квартиры — единички и двушки в хрущевках и панельных домах, без ремонта и в отдаленных районах (Дарница, Троещина, ДВРЗ и другие). Если еще весной такую квартиру реально было найти за 26 тысяч долларов, то сейчас за нее просят уже 27,5-28 тысяч”, — рассказала “Стране” Ирина Луханина.

Растут в цене и так называемые новые старые-квартиры — жилье в сданных в течение 3-5 лет новостройках. В таких домах мечтает жить столичный средний класс — апартаменты там новые, а всех минусов новостроек (массовое заселении соседей, горы строительного мусора и толпы ремонтников) уже нет.

Владельцы такого жилья подтянули цены следом за застройщиками, которые в сентябре повысили свои расценки приблизительно на 10%. По словам начальника отдела продаж SVITLO PARK Александра Панфилова, новое жилье дорожает, прежде всего, из-за роста курса доллара, к которому привязана стоимость большинства стройматериалов. Он не исключает, что в октябре рынок ждет новая волна подорожания — многие застройщики намерены переписать ценники из расчета курса 29 грн. за доллар.

Впрочем, руководитель агентства “Евро Рейтинг” Григорий Перерва рассказал “Стране”, что строители переписывая ценники, все же дают скидки потенциальным покупателям. Причем, нередко эти скидки достигают тех же 10-15% и по-сути, нивелируют подорожание. Это происходит из-за высокой конкуренции — на каждого потенциального покупателя сейчас приходится не меньше десятка выставленных на продажу квартир.

А эксперт по недвижимости Михаил Артюхов рассказал “Стране”, что на рынке сложился некий пул крупных застройщиков, которые имеют доступ к земельным участкам и за счет демпинга попросту выдавливают с рынка остальных строителей.

Ценовые войны и обилие новостроек уже давно настораживают экспертов. Они несколько лет кряду ожидают когда же лопнет этот “мыльный пузырь”. Тем не менее, пока громких банкротств застройщиков и тысяч обманутых покупателей, оставшихся без крыши над головой, к счастью, нет. Хотя определенные неудобства терпят все покупали первички.

Во-первых, по словам Григория Перервы, уже стали нормой задержки со сдачей домов в эксплуатацию. “Задержка в 6 месяцев — это стандартная ситуация. Покупатели начинают нервничать, если срок увеличивается до года”, — говорит эксперт.

Во-вторых, у большинства застройщиков резко выросла себестоимость строительства (до 20%). Повысить цены так существенно, как того требует смета, они не решаются. В итоге, экономят на чем только могут. По словам Григория Перервы, становится все больше откровенно некачественного жилья — возведенного с нарушением технологий, из некачественных стройматериалов, без парковочных мест, инфраструктуры и т.д.

Тем не менее, люди все равно предпочитают новое жилье, считая, что квартиры в старом фонде не только морально и физически устарели, но и слишком дороги в обслуживании. Ведь в старых домах с прохудившимися трубами платить за коммуналку почти всегда приходится на 10-30% дороже, чем в новостройках.

Заробитчан сменили днепропетровские

Показательно, что та же тенденция резкого всплеска спроса на аренду и покупку жилья, о которой говорят столичные риэлторы, наблюдается сейчас и во Львове. Причем, как и в случае с Киевом, львовский рынок также переполнили покупатели и арендаторы из других регионов.

“На аренду у нас вообще ажиотажный спрос. Очень много иногородних студентов, которых родители отправляют учиться во Львов”, — рассказала “Стране” руководитель местного агентства “Эстейт Эксклюзив” Елена Мищанчук. Ее коллеги добавляют, что во львовские вузы в этом году поступило много детей из украинских мегаполисов, где есть свои университеты — из Харькова, Днепра и даже Киева.

Цены на аренду также подскочили. Среднестатистическая квартира тут стоит, как и в Киеве — порядка 10 тысяч гривен в месяц.

“Особенно активно смотрят квартиры из восточных областей — Днепропетровской, Запорожской. Даже если сами тут не живут, квартиру покупают, как говорится — про запас”, — поясняет Мищанчук.

Есть мнение, что многие украинцы пытаются обзавестись жилплощадью поближе к западной границе и по соображениям безопасности — мало ли как пойдут дела в остальных областях, особенно с учетом будущих выборов.

Заезжие покупатели ищут апартаменты в новостройках в непосредственной близости от центра или квартиры в старых домах австрийской и польской постройки в центре Львова.

“Местные такого не берут. Хороших новостроек у нас очень мало. Строят на бывших производственных площадках, а так с экологией не очень. Коммуникации оставляют старые, нет парковок и плохая инфраструктура. При этом цены — до 650 долларов за квадратный метр”, — рассказала “Стране” Елена Мищанчук.

За такие же деньги и даже дешевле (к примеру, за 500-550 долларов за квадрат), реально купить квартиру в новостройке в Киеве или ближайшем пригороде.

В целом, во Львове активизация покупателей пока не сказалась на ценах на куплю-продажу недвижимости. “Они практически не растут”, — говорит Елена Мищанчук. Возможно, причина в оттоке заробитчанских денег. Если раньше заробитчане вкладывали каждую копейку в недвижимость на родине, то сейчас предпочитают покупать квартиры в Европе. “В Польше из-за наплыва украинских покупателей уже даже подорожало жилье. А у нас заробитчанских денег становится все меньше”, — констатирует Мищанчук.

А в других регионах – застой

Пока киевские и львовские риэлторы подсчитывают прибыль, их коллеги в других крупных украинских городах лишь констатируют дальнейшее снижение продаж и, соответственно, цен. По данным SV Development, продолжает дешеветь жилье практически во всех мегаполисах. Так, в Одессе всего за месяц среднестатистический квадратный метр жилья упал в цене на 6 долларов, до 844 долларов. За последний год стоимость квадрата упала на 32 доллара — прошлой осенью квартиры в Одессе продавались по 876 долларов/кв.м

Такая же картина в Харькове – минус 4 доллара на каждом квадратном метре жилья за месяц и 22 доллара — за год (сейчас — $642/кв.м). По данным domik.ua, однокомнатная квартира в центре Харькова стоит от 27 тыс. долларов.

В Днепре среднестатистический квадрат подешевел за год почти на 30 долларов, а с начала сентября — на 5 долларов. По данным domik.ua, в Днепре однокомнатные квартиры в старых домах, но в самом центре города реально купить всего за 24-26 тысяч долларов, а двушки — за 28-30 тыс. Цены на такое жилье на окраинах и вовсе стартуют с 22 тыс. и 25 тыс. соответственно. Это в 1,5-2 раза дешевле, чем в Киеве и Львове, хотя еще несколько лет назад днепропетровское жилье было дешевле киевского лишь максимум на 20-25%.

И, по мнению местных риэлторов, даже при столь невысоких ценах ожидать активизации спроса в ближайшее время в регионе не приходится. А вот желающих избавиться от стремительно обесценивающего жилья, наоборот, становится больше. Из-за этого растет и предложение, а на фоне невысокого спроса — это гарантия дальнейшего снижения цен.

Страна

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