Ползучая федерализация. Как и почему реальная власть в регионах перетекает к мэрам крупных городов и местным кланам

В Украине усиливается роль местной власти. В определенных случаях население воспринимает их как альтернативу центру, отношение к деятельности которого вообще оставляет желать лучшего. Позиция выборной власти на местах повлияет, помимо прочего, на результат президентской кампании. И не только.

По сути в стране идет стихийная “федерализация”, где реальными хозяевами регионов становятся не назначаемые из центра губернаторы, а мэры крупных городов и те финансово-политические (или даже криминальные) структуры, которые на них влияют.

И именно к ним уже сейчас на поклон вынуждены ехать кандидаты в президенты и лидеры партий.

К чему может привести такая ситуация, разбиралась “Страна”.

Танго с местными

Отношения Киева как политического центра с регионами в последнее время приняли противоречивый характер. И предвыборная гонка это только подчеркнула.

Политики национального масштаба, включая президента Петра Порошенко, ищут на местах поддержку в кампании. При этом Администрация президента (АП) заинтересована в том, чтобы сильные лидеры в регионах – прежде всего популярные мэры мегаполисов – выступили в роли VIP-агитаторов за действующего главу государства, который, вероятнее всего, таки будет баллотироваться.

На словах мэры крупных городов, например, мэр Харькова Геннадий Кернес, поддерживают президента. Однако к ним ездят и другие политики. А потому влиятельные местные лидеры уже сейчас раскладывают яйца по разным корзинам.

По данным “Страны”, мэры крупнейших городов (а также стоящие за ними кланы) уже сейчас ведут активные переговоры и с Тимошенко, и с Зеленским, и с Бойко, и с рядом других кандидатов. И как по итогу сложится картина распределения админресурса перед выборами – бабушка на двое сказала.

В конце концов именно в руках мэров сейчас находится целая инфраструктура контролируемого голосования (сетки, кадры для избирательных комиссий).

А в последнее время к этому добавился еще и общий рост влияния элит. Пожалуй впервые за все время время независимости (может быть за исключением периода неопределенности начала 90-х) местные элиты становятся более влиятельным фактором региональной политики, чем центральное правительство.

Их мощь базируется на трех китах.

1. Народная легитимность

Постоянные дрязги в Киеве и взаимная дискредитация всех общенациональных политиков привела к тому, что даже у самых популярных из них (например, Юлии Тимошенко) рейтинг доверия сравнительно невысокий (до 20 процентов). Не говоря уже о представителях власти, к которым доверие испытывают и вовсе менее 10 процентов.

Зато в отношении местных властей картина совершенно иная.

Их рейтинги могут превышать и 50 процентов в их городах и даже целых регионах.

Например, по данным социологического агентства “Рейтинг”, работу харьковского мэра Кернеса одобряет 75% опрошенных харьковчан. Для сравнения рейтинг в Харькове президента Порошенко составил лишь 9%, а Юлии Тимошенко – 15,5%.

Похожая картина и по другим крупным городам. Например, в Ивано-Франковске (73% одобряет работу своего мэра), в Мариуполе (71%), в Чернигове (70%), в Одессе и Виннице (по 68%), во Львове и Днепре (по 53%). Даже в Киеве рейтинг Кличко (41%) выше, чем у любого общенационального политика.

В среднем по стране работой выборных руководителей населенных пунктов довольны 43%. А деятельность Порошенко позитивно оценили только 12%.

В среде политологов, ситуация, когда лидерами популярности являются одни политики, а формально власть принадлежит другим, называется “народной легитимностью”. И, при определенных обстоятельствах, народная легитимность трансформируется в реальное и определяющее влияние на политические процессы.

Очередь к мэрам крупных городов из общенациональных политиков накануне выборов – тому подтверждение. Все хотят заручится их поддержкой.

В практическом смысле это выливается в процесс полного подчинения партийных структур в регионах местным элитам. Партии просто договариваются с ними, что те ставят своих людей в их ячейки и обеспечивают результат на выборах.

Как отмечает политический эксперт Руслан Бортник, уже сейчас во многих регионах у власти находятся местные кланы. “Они доминируют в местной экономике, правоохранительной системе и политике. Под выборы они камуфлируются в цвета той или иной национальной партии, но отстаивают, прежде всего, свои интересы”, – говорит эксперт “Стране”.

Впрочем, партии тоже бывают “местные”. Яркий пример здесь – политическая сила “За конкретные дела”, чья деятельность не выходит за пределы Хмельницкой области. Сопредседатели политсилы – внефракционный депутат Александр Герега и его супруга Галина, который являются владельцами сети строительных гипермаркетов “Эпицентр К”. У этой партии – самая большая фракция в Хмельницком облсовете.

Депутат этой фракции – первый заместитель председателя Хмельницкого облсовета. В актив партии входит и заместитель председателя Хмельницкой областной госадминистрации Светлана Павлишина. Впрочем, в орбиту Герег входит и сам руководитель региона, бывший директор одного из “Эпицентров” Вадим Лозовой.

У мэра Одессы Труханова также своя партия – “Доверяй делам”.

А Кернес фактически взял на местных выборах 2015 года “в аренду” партию “Видродження”, получив по ее партийным спискам большинство в Харьковском горсовете.

Аналогичная картина, по прогнозам, будет и на парламентских выборах. “Местные кланы просто навяжут держателям партийных списков своих людей в обмен на поддержку на выборах. А также полностью закроют своими людьми мажоритарку, если ее сохранят. И парламент по итогу будут контролировать уже несколько иные люди, чем сейчас, а процесс децентрализации будет только углубляться на законодательном уровне. Хотя, конечно, центральная власть этому будет сопротивляться”, – прогнозирует в разговоре со “Страной” один из влиятельных нардепов.

2. Финансовая власть

Расхваливая мэров, Порошенко любит вспоминать о реформе децентрализации, благодаря которой, по его словам, местные общины (считай, городские и сельские головы) получили дополнительные денежные средства.

Процесс децентрализации действительно дал местным бюджетам существенную прибавку по поступлениям. Правда, процесс этот противоречивый. С одной стороны, денег стало больше. А с другой – в регионы из центра перебросили часть расходной части. И, в итоге, ситуация выглядит отнюдь не шоколадно (подробнее о том, что на практике представляет собой финансовая децентрализация можно прочитать здесь).

Но, в любом случае, масштаб бюджета на местах увеличился. А значит, увеличились и возможности для его “освоения” и прямого воровства со стороны местных элит.

“Процесс этот не линейный. Нельзя сказать, что мэры полностью свободны в освоении средств местных бюджетов. Приходится делится с “гонцами” от центральной власти, которым сбрасывают некоторые тендеры и целые сферы коммунального хозяйства. Но, в любом случае, и об этом нужно договариваться с мэрами. В итоге у местных кланов денег становится все больше. И сейчас, как говорят, в нашей среде выгоднее иметь своего человека мэром крупного города, чем губернатором и даже министром – освоить можно намного больше. А у кого деньги, у того и власть”, – говорит “Стране” источник в одной из крупных финансово-промышленных групп.

3. Силовая составляющая

Для полноты картины перетока власти не хватает силовой составляющей. Правоохранительные органы в Украине находятся в подчинении у Киева.

Но, во-первых, уже сейчас во многих городах создаются так называемые “муниципальные варты” – по сути полицейские формирования, подконтрольные мэрам.

Во-вторых, формально подчиненные Киеву силовики зачастую также ориентируются на местные кланы. Типичный пример – ситуация в Херсонской области, где после скандала с гибелью Кати Гандзюк вскрылся целый клубок связей между местной полицией, прокуратурой и влиятельными региональными политиками и бизнесменами.

Что дальше?

Если эти тенденции продолжатся, то очевидно, что основной контроль за процессами в регионах постепенно будет переходить к местным властям.

В стране де-факто идет ползучая “регионализация”. “Ее можно назвать формой федерализации для недемократических стран вроде Украины”, – полагает Бортник.

Правда, уже сейчас можно прогнозировать сопротивление центра.

“Могу прогнозировать, что после выборов, при любом их исходе центральная власть попытается повернуть вспять эти процессы. Но посмотрим насколько сильным будет сопротивление местных элит”, – сказал один из влиятельных нардепов.

Политолог Вадим Карасев полагает, что это может получиться. “Мэры, и через них местные элиты, не могут стать полноценными хозяевами территорий, так как президентские административная и силовая вертикали достаточно мощно ограничивают их возможности. Даже парамилитарные формирования при горсоветах – еще не признак полноценной власти. Мэров уравновешивают назначенные Киевом губернаторы. Областная СБУ, налоговая, вообще НАБУ контролируются столицей. Конечно, возможности мэров на местном уровне востребованы в избирательный период, но после их услугами можно будет пренебречь”, – полагает Карасев.

В тоже время, представитель мэрии одного из крупных городов с таким прогнозом не согласен. “Уже сейчас в нашем регионе мэр областного центра намного более влиятельный человек, чем губернатор. У него есть и популярность в народе, и финансовые ресурсы весьма крупные. И связи с силовиками. И все центральные политики идут к нам договариваться. Естественно, никто не собирается отказываться от всего этого”, – говорит представитель местной власти.

Очевидно, что ключевое значение будут иметь результаты выборов в парламент осенью 2019 года и итоговый его состав.

Будет ли продолжен процесс “стихийной федерализации” или нет – зависит от того, сможет ли парламент на законодательном уровне расширить права регионов и уменьшить роль губернаторов. Соответствующие проекты изменений в Конституции вносились в парламент еще с 2004 года и предусматривали переход власти в областях от глав ОГА к исполкомам облсоветов (что позволило бы местным элитам легитимизировать свою власть не только не уровне городов, но и целых регионов).

Последний раз такая попытка была предпринята в 2015 году, когда были приняты в первом чтении изменения в Конституцию касательно особого статуса Донбасса (в рамках выполнения Украиной политической части Минских соглашений). Там также содержалась норма по облсоветам.

Из-за конфликтности темы Донбасса до окончательного принятия изменений в Основной закон дело не дошло. Но сам законопроект никто не отзывал, так же как никто и не снимал обязательства по Минским соглашениям. И к этому вопросу вполне могут вернуться уже в новом составе Рады.

Страна

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