Повышение стоимости топлива: причины и последствия

Повышение стоимости топлива вызвано трендом последних нескольких месяцев – ростом цен на нефть и ослаблением национальной валюты.

Все это и привело к росту цен на топливо более чем на 10%. Это объективные факторы, на которые украинское правительство не может повлиять. Я и раньше прогнозировал, что стоимость А-95 ближе к концу года может выйти 30 гривен за литр, но как видите, это уже произошло в ряде крупных сетей АЗС, работающих преимущественно в премиальном сегменте рынка.

Если курс нацвалюты будет ослабляться и далее, а нефть продолжит дорожать, то это может повлечь за собой дальнейшее повышение стоимости топлива. Впрочем, пока стоимость нефти перестала повышаться, поэтому этот фактор можно отложить. Однако второй фактор – девальвация гривны – присутствует.

В случае, если гривна прекратит девальвировать, то цены на бензин А-95 зафиксируются примерно на отметке 30 гривен за литр. Повышение цен возможно будет лишь в мелких сетях, которые еще не исчерпали диапазон роста. Они всегда запаздывают.

Если же девальвация будет продолжаться, то тогда не исключено, что цена на бензин превысит 30 грн/л. Тем более, что непонятно, какими будут акцизы на нефтепродукты на следующий год. Их пересмотр в сторону увеличения в рамках нового бюджета станет дополнительным фактором для роста цен на нефтепродукты.

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