Росія може напасти на Україну під час Різдвяних свят, – екс-посол США

У Сполучених Штатах Америки прогнозують, що Росія може наростити збройну агресію в Україні під час новорічних і різдвяних свят. Кремль може підло використати цей час для свого нападу, адже світ буде відволікатися на святкування.

Таку думку висловили американські аналітики Джон Гербст і Майкл Карпентер, передає видання Newsweek.

Москва любить влаштовувати агресивні атаки, коли світ не звертає уваги. Вона вторглась до Афганістану протягом Різдвяних свят в 1979 році та атакувала Грузію під час сезону відпусток в серпні,
– нагадав Гербст.

За словами колишнього дипломата, сезон свят і відставка міністра оборони США Джеймс Меттіса створили ідеальні умови для наступу Кремля.

“Слабка реакція Заходу на ескалацію Москвою війни проти України, коли вона захопила українські кораблі, також підвищує ймовірність нового удару Кремля. Так само як і безлад у Вашингтоні та відставка Меттіса”, – додав він.

Колишній заступник помічника міністра оборони США з питань Росії, України та Євразії Майкл Карпентер наголосив, що може зрости загострення в протистоянні за контроль над Азовським морем.

Росіяни прагнуть повного домінування над Керченською протокою та Азовським морем, а українці не хочуть віддавати контроль над власними територіальними водами і свободу проходження через протоку, і це їхнє право. Тому потенціал ескалації великий,
– підкреслив Карпентер.

Екс-представник Пентагону зазначив, що Військово-морські сили України поки навряд чи зможуть протистояти повномасштабній агресії Росії.

“Боюся, український військово-морський флот – надто малий, щоб силою відстоювати свої права проти більшого Чорноморського флоту Росії. Тому я б радив Україні не намагалися ще раз пройти через протоку. Створення москітного флоту, яке передбачає український план розвитку ВМС, – це правильна стратегія. Однак на її втілення знадобляться роки, а криза може виникнути у найближчі тижні чи місяці”, – сказав аналітик.

До слова, спецпредставник США з питань України Курт Волкер заявив, що Кремль може розпочати нову агресію в Україні, однак США спостерігають за ситуацією, аби запобігти такому розвитку подій. За його словами, Росія шукає привід – це підтверджує атака на українські кораблі біля Керченської протоки.

Що сталося в Азовському морі?

25 листопада у Керченській протоці російський прикордонний корабель протаранив рейдовий буксир українських військових. Відомо, що 2 українських військових малих броньованих артилерійських катери та рейдовий буксир переходили планово та відповідно до міжнародних норм з порту Одеси до порту в Маріуполі.

Проте в Росії заявили, що українські військові кораблі нібито неправомірно зайшли в тимчасово закриту акваторію територіального моря РФ і продовжили рух до Керченської протоки.

Група українських кораблів продовжила свій шлях до Маріуполя. Проте під час виходу з Керченської протоки російські прикордонні судна відкрили вогонь по українських кораблях, внаслідок чого 6 українських військових моряків зазнали поранень. Також Росія захопила 2 українських судна та взяла в полон 24 українських моряків, яких згодом арештували в окупованому Криму та вивезли до московських СІЗО.

Після цього Україна ввела у 10-и областях воєнний стан до 26 грудня. Окрім того, 30 листопада Україна заборонила в’їзд на свою територію чоловікам-громадянам Росії у віці 16-60 років.

Росія також вже не перший місяць блокує в Азовському морі іноземні судна, що прямували до українських портів. Через це українська економіка зазнає чималих збитків.

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