Со дна Азовского моря еще могут постучать: как военное положение повлияет на экономику страны

Верховная Рада утвердила указ Президента Петра Порошенко о введении военного положения с 28 ноября. Как это решение может отразиться на экономике Украины? (укр)

Новий робочий тиждень в Україні почався з інформаційної підготовки до воєнного стану. Ввести його попросив президент після засідання РНБО через конфлікт в Азовському морі.

Спочатку голосування у Верховній Раді було призначене на 16:00 й успіхом не увінчалося. Щоб ввести воєнний стан, депутатам довелося працювати понаднормово.

Рішення було ухвалене близько 22:00 у пакеті з постановою про проведення виборів президента країни 31 березня 2019 року. При цьому воєнний стан буде запроваджено лише у десятьох областях.

До переліку входять Одеська, Миколаївська, Херсонська, Запорізька, Луганська, Донецька, Сумська, Харківська, Чернігівська та Вінницька,області.

Як це рішення може позначитися на економіці України?

Гроші люблять тишу

Новина про можливе введення воєнного стану в інформаційному просторі країни стала провідною ще з вечора неділі. Хоча переважно обговорювалася політична складова цього рішення, вже зранку воно мало економічні наслідки, хай і не дуже суттєві.

Новини про черговий етап конфлікту помітив фондовий ринок: подешевшали акції українських емітентів та державні боргові папери.

Зокрема, акції Ferrexpo на Лондонській фондовій біржі (LSE) за перші 20 хвилин торгів у понеділок просіли на 2,14%. Курс акцій МХП на LSE знизився на 0,94%. Акції «Кернела» на Варшавській фондовій біржі подешевшали на 1,44%.

Новини про воєнний стан спонукали інвесторів продавати українські євробонди. Майже всі бонди України були в негативній динаміці, вони втратили в ціні 1-2 базисні пункти.

Це відбувалося на фоні зростання більшості головних світових фондових індексів. Тобто світову економіку проблеми в Азовському морі не цікавили.

Острах щодо запровадження воєнного стану був на руку лише пунктам з обміну валют. Деякі з них задерли курс гривні до 29,9 грн за дол.

Ближче до вечора до них приєдналися комерційні банки, підвищивши готівковий курс долара на 50-80 коп. Вони продавали долари за курсом, близьким до 29 грн.

У чиновників усе стабільно

Натомість українські чиновники наввипередки почали переконувати, що воєнний стан не вплине на роботу державних органів.

Віце-прем’єр-міністр Павло Розенко сказав, що всі і надалі будуть отримувати пенсії. Голова Нацбанку Яків Смолій запевнив, що банківська система працюватиме без обмежень.

Крім цього, на зустрічі з головами найбільших 40 банків він спробував зарядити усіх оптимізмом. Ключовий меседж — НБУ у разі необхідності підтримає гривню інтервенціями. Ліквідність банківської системи — 75 млрд грн. Про всяк випадок Смолій попросив банкірів вчасно наповнювати банкомати, очевидно, передбачаючи можливі панічні настрої населення.

Міністр інфраструктури Володимир Омелян відрапортував журналістам, що його відомство перебуває в стані підвищеної готовності до виконання рішень РНБО й уряду щодо обмеження руху транспорту.

У бізнесу оптимізму менше

Бізнес позитиву від конфлікту в Азовському морі не чекає.

«Такі дії роблять непрогнозованою і без того нестабільну економічну ситуацію в Україні. Через Азовське море Україна експортує близько 2 млн тонн зерна. У разі обмеження портової діяльності перерозподіл вантажів у напрямку інших портів зробить роботу залізниці ще більш напруженною», — каже президент Української зернової асоціації (УЗА) Микола Горбачов.

За даними УЗА, ситуація щодо руху кораблів із зерновими вантажами невизначена. Близько 30 кораблів стоять в очікуванні виходу і заходу в районі Керченської протоки.

Крім цього, воєнний стан може призвести до здорожчання зовнішніх та внутрішніх державних запозичень, що спричинить зростання вартості обслуговування державного боргу. Відповідно, можуть подорожчати і запозичення для приватних компаній.

МВФ у заявах обережний, інвесторів чекати не варто

Постійний представник МВФ в Україні Йоста Люнгман зробив таку заяву: «Ми спостерігаємо за останніми подіями, включно з введенням воєнного стану, і сподіваємося на невідкладну деескалацію поточної ситуації. МВФ не має юридичних обмежень щодо продовження співпраці з Україною у цій ситуації».

Однак питання щодо майбутньої співпраці з МВФ все ж виникають. У міжнародних інституціях можуть зрозуміти, що воєнний стан введено не задля безпеки країни, а для підсилення позицій влади на виборах, що може вплинути на рішення МВФ про надання траншу.

«Є ризик, що МВФ може відкласти надання траншу до з’ясування ситуації. Так вже було навесні 2017 року, коли рада МВФ відкладала рішення про транш через введення економічної блокади окупованих територій», — вважає аналітик Concorde Сapital Олександр Паращій.

Рішення про воєнний стан може знизити і без того слабкий інвестиційний інтерес.

Не виключено, що це спровокує черговий відплив капіталу з країни, збільшивши дефіцит платіжного балансу.

Як наслідок, це призведе до зменшення золотовалютних резервів та падіння курсу національної валюти.

«Інвестори налякані, для них воєнний стан означає повну зупинку капіталовкладень. Ця ситуація особливо небезпечна, тому що в рішенні про воєнний стан можуть бути пункти про конфіскацію майна та мобілізацію людей, а це перетворює Україну в зону неконтрольованого ризику.

Сам розгляд рішення про воєнний стан відкидає нас на три роки, у 2015-й, знищуючи всю накопичену відтоді репутацію.

Особливо сумно це для східних областей, куди і так побоювалися інвестувати. Досить подивитися публічну карту відкриття нових підприємств», — каже інвестиційний консультант С-consulting Дмитро Бабаєв.

Воєнний стан схожий на політичну авантюру

Ще одне суттєве питання — що планує зробити влада за 30 днів воєнного стану. У цій ситуації складно зрозуміти, що зміниться за місяць і, відповідно, повірити в ефективність такого інструменту.

На думку експертів, воєнний стан варто запроваджувати лише у крайніх випадках.

«В історії є приклади, коли введення надзвичайного стану, переведення економіки з ринкових засад на командно-адміністративні, обмеження приватної ініціативи з метою мобілізації всіх сил держави для спасіння за повної підтримки громади давали короткотерміновий ефект. Це має сенс тоді, коли стоїть питання виживання суспільства.

Коли ж надзвичайний стан стає звичайним способом економічного життя, це призводить до негативного ефекту. Чому?

Ринкові методи стимулювання економічного розвитку не працюють, інвестор у країну, що воює, не йде, а командно-адміністративні методи не діють. Отже, не досягається основна мета — мобілізація зусиль», — констатує виконавчий директор Економічного дискусійного клубу Олег Пендзин.

Александр Моисеенко, Экономическая правда

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