Украина может остаться без крупной госкомпании: в чем опасность

В рамках процесса по либерализации отечественного газового рынка НАК “Нафтогаз Украины” утратит большинство функций, которые присущи этой компании сегодня. В связи с этим может возникнуть вопрос о самом существовании НАК, тем более что заявления на этот счет уже звучат. “Апостроф” выяснил, что ждет “Нафтогаз” в будущем и реальна ли ликвидация компании.

Украина в соответствии с условиями соглашения об ассоциации с Европейским Союзом должна либерализовать свой энергетический рынок. В ЕС этот рынок регулируется законодательными актами и директивами, известными под общим названием Третий энергопакет. В рамках выполнения требований Третьего энергопакета Киев должен выделить из структуры НАК “Нафтогаз Украины” компанию по транспортировке газа, поскольку, согласно европейским нормам, производитель газа не может одновременно быть и его транзитером.

Процедура разделения компаний по функциям имеет название “анбандлинг” (от английского unbundling – разделение). Не исключено, что из транзитной составляющей будет также выделена компания по хранению газа.

Провести анбандлинг до окончания срока действия контрактов с российским “Газпромом” по поставкам и транзиту газа крайне затруднительно, так как стороной договоров от Украины является именно “Нафтогаз”. Срок действия контрактов истекает в конце 2019 года, и соответственно, с 2020 года ничего не может препятствовать разукрупнению “Нафтогаза”.

Бессмысленное существование

Разделение по функциям существует и сегодня: добычей занимается компания “Укргаздобыча” (УГД), транзитом – АО “Укртрансгаз”. Но обе компании пока что входят в структуру “Нафтогаза”, то есть не являются самостоятельными хозяйствующими субъектами. Если (а точнее – когда) анбандлинг состоится, возникает вопрос: а нужна ли, в принципе, такая компания, как НАК “Нафтогаз Украины”? Как известно, в конце сентября Юлия Тимошенко заявила, что в случае избрания ее президентом Украины на выборах 2019 года она ликвидирует “Нафтогаз”, “как посредника, который не нужен”. По ее словам, это позволит снизить цены на газ для украинцев “минимум вдвое”. На ликвидацию “Нафтогаза” Тимошенко отводит полгода, очевидно, после инаугурации – опять же, в случае ее избрания на президентский пост. А, согласно данным опросов, шансы на это довольно велики.

Впрочем, как считает директор энергетических программ Центра Разумкова Владимир Омельченко, анбандлинг вряд ли произойдет скоро, “поскольку “Нафтогаз” не заинтересован в этой процедуре”. При этом, по его словам, после окончания срока действия контрактов с “Газпромом” “существование “Нафтогаза” станет бессмысленным”. “У нее (компании) ничего нет кроме компьютеров, столов и стульев. Она не владеет производственными фондами, эти производственные фонды отданы ей в пользование постановлением Кабинета министров, – сказал он в комментарии “Апострофу”. – Нужно очень сильно задуматься над смыслом существования этой компании – какую добавленную стоимость она создает?”

Легкое доминирование

По большому счету, после анбандлинга “Нафтогаз” превратится в трейдинговую компанию, объясняют эксперты.

По словам президента Центра глобалистики “Стратегия XXI” Михаила Гончара, уже сегодня “Нафтогаз” фактически выполняет функции трейдера по реализации газа, добытого УГД.

Эксперт программы “Энергетика” аналитического центра “Украинский институт будущего” Андриан Прокип согласен с этим. “После проведения анбандлинга и выделения отдельной компании, которая будет заниматься транзитом (а также складированием), если будет отделение компании, которая будет заниматься добычей, “Нафтогаз” фактически превратится в трейдера. Это будет крупный трейдер в государственной собственности”, – сказал он “Апострофу”.

Однако, согласно закону о рынке природного газа, который был принят Верховной Радой (и подписан президентом) еще в 2015 году, “Нафтогаз” утрачивает свое монопольное положение на газовом рынке Украины. Андриан Прокип напомнил, что на сегодня на отечественном рынке уже работают порядка 30 частных трейдеров.

Тем не менее пока “Нафтогаз” сохраняет доминирующее положение на рынке. “Нафтогаз” пытается это опровергнуть, мол, “мы конкурируем на равных”, но это не так”, – сказал изданию Михаил Гончар.

Эксперт считает, что ничего страшного не произойдет, если “Нафтогаз” будет ликвидирован. “Есть жизнь до “Нафтогаза” и после “Нафтогаза” – катастрофы не случится”, – отметил он.

Вместе с тем, отмечает Михаил Гончар, в отличие от предыдущих лет “Нафтогаз” сейчас является прибыльной компанией, которая делает налоговые отчисления в госбюджет на значительные суммы. Кроме того, по его словам, в случае упразднения “Нафтогаза” могут возникнуть проблемы у газодобывающей компании. “Сразу прибежит куча трейдеров, которые купят (добытый газ). Но это вовсе не гарантирует нормальное существование – мы понимаем, кто прибежит и какие условия выставит. А потому она будет в долгах, как шелках”, – пояснил специалист, добавив, что альтернативным вариантом может стать создание трейдера уже при газодобывающей компании. Он также считает, что необходимо создать условия для того, чтобы на смену “Нафтогазу” не пришел другой монополист – им может стать компания, связанная с кем-то из отечественных олигархов.

Еще одним важным моментом, по мнению Михаила Гончара, является проблема дистрибуции газа. Он напомнил, что на сегодня доставкой топлива конечному потребителю занимаются так называемые облагазы, “три четверти которых находятся в частных руках” (компании, связанные с Дмитрием Фирташем). “Эти вопросы нельзя решать в отрыве друг от друга. Можно снизить доминирование “Нафтогаза” на рынке, но (нужно) и убрать монополию на дистрибуцию”, – сказал Гончар.

Андриан Прокип считает, что судьбу “Нафтогаза” должен решить рынок. “Эффективность компании определит, насколько она нужна. Если она будет эффективной, она продолжит работу, если нет – то ее судьба предрешена. Когда полноценно заработает рынок (газа), он сам все расставить все на свои места”, – резюмировал эксперт.

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